One thing every gambler wants is a higher return on investment, finding value is imperative if you are going to be profitable in the long term when betting on football, and using stats is the most reliable way to find winners.
Relying on hunches or gut feeling will see you left empty-handed more often than not so we’re going to take a look at how you can use stats to boost your profit when betting.
The first thing which you need to take into account when using stats is the implied probability the bookies odds offer. Implied probability is the percentage chance that the bookies believe something has to occur in a betting market. Implied probability is found by converting fractional or decimal odds into a percentage and using the stats we can find the best ways to beat the bookies.
Using these stats, we can highlight where the likelihood of an event happening based on previous results is greater than the implied probability that the bookies odds offer. An example of this is in the game between Al Sharjah and Al Jazira in the UAE Premier League on Friday, March, 29. The stats show that 83.34 percent of games involving these two sides this season would see the Over 2.5 goal market return as a winner, yet the bookies are offering odds of 13/20 (1.65), an implies probability of just over 60% whilst this season shows that the market has landed in 83.34% of games involving the teams this season.
Although these bets won’t always land the key to long term profitability is finding bets where the true likelihood of an event beats the odds that the bookies are offering, something which the use of this type of data goes a long way towards helping.
Of course, it is almost impossible to know these stats for the UAE League off the top of your head. All stats used in this article come from Bet Dynamo, a site which allows you to see stats like this from leagues all over the world, collecting data and presenting it in an easy to read way saving you a lot of leg work and making winning bets much easier to find.
Going with your head over your heart is the only way to be profitable in the long-term when betting on football, and stats are certainly the way to make the best possible selections when it comes to trying to find a winner.